David Leonard Capelli on LinkedIn: Low temperatures heating consideration from the Liebreich's Hydrogen… (2025)

David Leonard Capelli

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Low temperatures heating consideration from the Liebreich's Hydrogen LadderI find Michael Liebreich's Hydrogen Ladder to be a valuable tool for gauging the likelihood that specific use cases will become a substantial consumer of hydrogen or its derivatives within the next decade. His rating system, for example D (small market share is plausible), E (niche market share possible) or G (no chance), provides an insightful perspective.From his chart, I extrapolated few considerations (blue boxes). #hydrogen in low and mid-temperature industrial and #domesticheating have the lowest ranking. #commercialheating also presents challenges, making it a less straightforward sector for hydrogen development. On the other hand, there appears to be potential for hydrogen in high-temperature #industrialheating.In his article, he writes: 'Domestic Heating was previously on Row F, but as 45 reports reviewed by Jan Rosenow unanimously conclude, supported by the IEA's latest Net Zero Roadmap, there is essentially no role for hydrogen in heating. Mid/low-temperature industrial heating also used to be on Row F, but with the progress in high-temperature heat pumps, there is no longer any rationale for industrial heat and steam up to 200°C to be provided by anything other than a heat pump.'Michael's assessment aligns with the notion that when it comes to equipment operating below 200°C, electrification, mainly through #heatpumps or a combination with electric heaters, emerges as the frontrunner. While I won't delve into the other use cases here, it's noteworthy that a substantial portion of global energy consumption is attributed to heating (including space heating, water heating, and low to mid-temperature industrial heating). The technologies needed to achieve (nearly) complete #decarbonization in these cases are mature and readily available today.The Hydrogen Ladder's relevance extends to all sectors worldwide. From my perspective, it indirectly acknowledges that space heating and low-temperature heat can already undergo decarbonization and decouple from fossil fuels already now. I encourage you to read Michael's insightful article about the expectations surrounding hydrogen's adoption in various technological applications. You can find his ladder and detailed article explaining it here: https://lnkd.in/eFjE9qE9#industrialdecarbonization #energytransition #electrification

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    3rd Day:In 2023, U.S. off-site corporate solar PPAs accounted for nearly half of the global off-site corporate solar market, followed by Spain and India. U.S. companies signed 14.1 GW of solar PPAs, with an additional 3.2 GW of wind PPAs. The top corporate offtakers—Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Verizon—collectively signed 40 GW of PPAs. In May 2024, Microsoft signed the largest-ever corporate PPA, over 10.5 GW of renewables (mostly solar), in the U.S. and Europe. This highlights how major tech companies are securing their own sustainable, cost-effective electricity by directly investing in new plants.Sources: NREL Spring 2024 Solar Industry Update (https://lnkd.in/dEnQhm8S), BloombergNEF, “Corporate PPA Deal Tracker,” Microsoft PV Magazine, 5/1/24.#CorporatePPAs #SolarEnergy #BigTech #RenewableInvestments #CleanEnergy

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    2nd Day:**U.S. Generating Capacity Additions and Retirements by Source show a continuous closure of coal and some fossil fuel plants. There is an imminent boom in solar (especially utility-scale) and a massive increase in battery storage, which will store excess electricity and reinject it into the grid during low-green production times. This shows energy providers see this solution as the most convenient among all power generation options.Sources: NREL Spring 2024 Solar Industry Update [https://lnkd.in/dEnQhm8S], EIA Form 860M/Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Table 7e.Interactive data:https://lnkd.in/dzNRHiRq#EnergyStorage #SolarBoom #Renewables #BatteryStorage #USEnergy

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    Every report with reliable data and charts can spark discoveries, considerations, debates, and ideas.This week, I will share daily insights based on the latest National Renewable Energy Laboratory Spring 2024 Solar Industry Update, which you can find here: (https://lnkd.in/dEnQhm8S).---1st Day:In 2023, global PV installations nearly doubled. China alone added as much PV capacity as the rest of the world did in 2022. Global annual PV additions are now 10x higher than in 2013. China is leading the PV revolution and will likely achieve sustainable, self-sufficient electricity earlier than other countries.Sources: NREL Spring 2024 Solar Industry Update [https://lnkd.in/dQvWH6z8), IEA, Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2024; Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2023.#SolarRevolution #RenewableEnergy #China #PVInstallations #EnergyIndependence

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    The last two centuries have seen unprecedented technological growth and tangible improvements in human well-being like never before. Much of this progress, driven by scientific discoveries and continuous technological advancements, has relied on vast and accessible amounts of cheap energy—first coal, then oil, and finally natural gas. These resources, crucial for our development and still the foundation of our modern lifestyle, are nonetheless finite.Since I was a child, I’ve often heard that #oilreserves would eventually be depleted. The Mad Max saga famously portrays a world that has collapsed due to resource wars, with oil becoming scarce and highly valuable. Estimates of fossil fuel reserves have always been sensitive and strategically important data for oil companies and countries alike. However, general estimates can still be made.Looking at the most recent data, it's interesting to observe that over the last 40 years, the estimated years of remaining reserves, expressed as the reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio (which measures the number of years left based on known reserves and current production levels), has stayed relatively constant at around 50 years—despite ever-growing global consumption.Focusing on #crudeoil, here are a few reasons why reserves have continued to increase:Technological Innovation: Breakthroughs in technology have made previously inaccessible resources economically viable. Continuous improvements in drilling efficiency have reduced the cost per barrel of oil. Innovations like hydraulic fracturing (fracking), horizontal drilling, and improved seismic imaging have allowed companies to locate and exploit reserves that were once thought to be unreachable or uneconomical.Unconventional Resources: #ShaleOil, tar sands, and deep-water reserves were not included in earlier calculations because they were too complex and expensive to process. Today, only 30% of oil comes from light crude oil. The light, sweet crude has largely been depleted, but advancements in shale oil extraction have transformed the U.S. from a declining oil producer to one of the world's top producers. The combination of fracking and horizontal drilling has unlocked vast shale oil reserves, particularly in places like the Bakken (North Dakota) and Permian Basin (Texas and New Mexico).Crude Oil Prices: What is depleted is cheap light crude oil—easy to extract and refine. This is reflected in today’s higher barrel prices compared to the lows of 30 years ago (also $10 per barrel). As prices rise, companies can economically access more expensive extraction methods that were previously unsustainable. This suggests that, over time, oil prices will continue to rise as cheap, light crude oil becomes scarcer and heavier, more expensive oil is left.Find the chart here: https://lnkd.in/dNcbJFkn#FossilFuels #EnergyTransition #EnergyIndustry #Sustainability #EnergyFuture #GlobalEnergy

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    𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐄𝐔 𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐥𝐨𝐯𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐇𝟐It's incredible to read this story about the EU's "love affair" with hydrogen, treating it as the holy grail for energy independence + sustainability. My comments stem from this article, which I highly recommend you read: https://lnkd.in/dsMMu-V2.While I, too, was enthusiastic about hydrogen years ago, as a promising solution, time, calculations, and the reality of energy transformation, efficiency, and costs have made me rethink. In last years—especially post-COVID and after the Ukraine war—hydrogen has become a major mantra in EU policy circles as THE solution to Europe’s energy supply and price challenges. Europe, with no significant energy reserves, pays substantially more for electricity compared to major global competitors (refer to Draghi's report on energy).The article focuses on Dutch professor Ad van Wijk, a key hydrogen promoter in Brussels, who has heavily influenced European policy at critical moments. He quickly secured a role as a special advisor to the hydrogen lobby.The ambitious EU plan to produce 40x2 GW of hydrogen by 2030 (later increased to 350 GW after the Ukraine invasion and gas crisis) was initially seen as overly ambitious by the EU climate and energy departments [... "They thought we were crazy!"].However, as the article reveals, the EU Commission's leadership ultimately included the plan in its hydrogen strategy, bypassing critical scrutiny from key departments. As [Samsom noted in 2021]: "You assume the European Commission will scrutinize every inch of the idea... No, we basically put forward the ambition of 2x40 gigawatts. It’s that simple sometimes; a good idea ends up in a big hydrogen strategy."This is yet another example of how an inspiring and passionate pitch can sway decision-makers—without them having the time or willingness to critically evaluate the feasibility of the proposal. And in this case, it's costing billions of euros from the EU budget.Main well-known criticisms of this plan that the media often overlooks, are:high costs, massive amount of renewable energy required, energy loss in hydrogen cycle.The plan envisions producing half of the hydrogen (the initial 40 GW) in North Africa using enormous solar PV fields and transporting it to EU, while the other half is produced within Europe. Yet, this plan doesn't first prioritize building the renewable infrastructure needed to achieve cheap electricity. Two basic questions rises automatically:1) If we can produce super-cheap electricity (required for affordable hydrogen), why not use it directly for end-users rather than complicate the life and end up paying 3x more for the inefficient electricity → H2 → electricity/heat cycle?2) If we aim for energy independence, are we not still dependent on foreign countries once we build (and fund!) these massive solar fields abroad?

    How one professor made the EU fall in love with hydrogen ftm.eu
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  • David Leonard Capelli

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    We’re often accustomed to gradual technological changes, except in areas like software and smartphones (though even their pace has slowed compared to just five years ago). Appliances like microwaves, ovens, and refrigerators seem to evolve slowly, with changes mostly in design rather than function. Perhaps because of this, the current revolution in solar power generation is still underestimated in terms of its significance and its future impact on industrial, social, strategic, and political fronts.If I had to choose just one graph to illustrate this evolutionary revolution, it would be the LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity). In 2010, the power generation cost from PV panels was$0.445 $/kWh; by 2022, it had dropped to 0.049 $/kWh—about one-tenth of the cost in just over a decade. Prices continue to decline slowly, while efficiency improvements make solar power generation increasingly attractive. These price and efficiency improvements remain unaffected by market fluctuations.Such a dramatic drop in costs is bound to have a significant impact on the energy market. Those who begin to capitalize on this opportunity today—whether manufacturers, nations, or industries—will likely gain a competitive edge in the future.Chart Source: International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).#SolarRevolution #EnergyTransition #LCOE #RenewableEnergy #SolarPower #EnergyMarket #Sustainability #Innovation #CleanEnergy #IndustrialImpact #StrategicGrowth

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    𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗮 𝗖𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗻 𝗧𝗮𝘅: 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗠𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗪𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗽𝗮𝘆 𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯 𝗘𝗧𝗦 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴Here I generated another chart with more countries. Most of EU countries have very low values (well below 5%). Stand out in particular, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and South Africa.Based on data from the 73rd annual edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy from The Energy Institute (EI) (https://lnkd.in/epRwuuTx)https://lnkd.in/eNmjeNbb

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    In the naval sector, there is a growing trend of LNG-fueled ships entering service (https://lnkd.in/eFSPUSy5), signaling a potential shift from heavy fuel oil (HFO) or diesel-powered ships to LNG power. While the emissions reductions vary—ranging from only 4% to 26% depending on engine technology (2-stroke, 4-stroke, low or high pressure) and technical measures to reduce methane slip—the shift is primarily driven by stricter regulations aimed at reducing pollution from dirty fuels like HFO, which contain high levels of sulfur and other pollutants.Though emissions at sea are not immediately visible to communities, they are significant overall. Before the natural gas crisis following the Ukrainian invasion, LNG was cheaper than HFO in key markets like Rotterdam and Singapore. After peaking in 2023, LNG prices have returned to being more competitive than low sulfur fuel oil and marine gasoil, increasing the likelihood that LNG will remain a viable and cost-effective alternative to HFO.While LNG is not the final decarbonizing solution for naval transportation and concerns about methane slip persist (SEA-LNG addresses methane slip concerns), the development of LNG-powered shipping maybe be a crucial step in reducing both carbon and above all pollutant emissions from the global fleet. This solution for ships also opens up future possibilities for using biomethane and e-fuels, provided they become cost-competitive.Find more information on Marine Fuel price comparisons for Rotterdam (https://lnkd.in/eR4yYRg8) and Singapore (https://lnkd.in/e-6uuFxE) from SEA-LNG.#LNG #NavalSector #MarineFuel #SustainableShipping #MethaneSlip #EmissionReduction #BioMethane #EFuels #MarinePollution #EnergyTransition #ShippingIndustry

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  • David Leonard Capelli

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    With the upcoming American elections drawing mainstream attention, I found this distribution chart of energy source supporters based on political affiliation particularly interesting. It's noteworthy how Republicans are more favorable to fossil fuels (even more than wind and solar) compared to Democrats, who tend to support renewable energy sources and are strongly against old fossil fuels.Interestingly, coal mining is generally viewed as the worst fossil fuel by both sides, while wind turbines are consistently seen as slightly less favorable than solar—perhaps because solar panels are less visible and apparent than wind turbines.I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar statistical distribution in Europe.Here’s the source from Pew Research Center: https://lnkd.in/eiykrnkU#EnergyPolitics #FossilFuels #RenewableEnergy #SolarEnergy #WindEnergy #CoalMining #PoliticalAffiliation #Elections #Sustainability #EnergyTransition #USA2024

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    This post touches on two key points regarding heat decarbonization in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Low-temperature heat (<100°C) is a significant energy use and contributor to global warming, primarily due to space heating. One of the most efficient ways to decarbonize energy use is through #heatpumps. These systems transfer heat from a low-temperature source (air, groundwater, soil, or available waste heat) to where it's needed.The critical factor that influences the decision to install a heat pump is the price ratio between electricity and NG. The higher the ratio, the longer the ROI, which slows down this technology's adoption. Reducing the gap between electricity and natural gas prices is essential.Renewables have matched or outperformed fossil fuels in terms of LCOE over the last years. This progress is driven by continuously decreasing wind and solar installation costs and efficiency improvements. In particular, the #PV sector has benefited from massive production investments in China, making PVs so affordable that they have been spotted as fence replacements.Despite the declining LCOE of renewables, electricity prices in many EU countries remain stable or even increase, creating a paradox where, even though green electricity is cheaper, consumers don’t see the benefit.This discrepancy is mainly due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy production—it is generated not when needed but when available, particularly during daylight hours. As a result, we see very low electricity prices during sunny hours but peak during sunrise and sunset when demand increases, and renewable production drops.Here (https://lnkd.in/eJETPHqT), Julien Jomaux explains in more detail some reasons behind these high price fluctuations and why some markets also experience negative prices.Interestingly, with high electricity prices, consumers find it financially advantageous to install PV systems, as the cost of self-generated electricity is consistently lower than grid electricity, even after accounting for amortization and interest on investment loans. This reinforces the expansion of total PV capacity, resulting in more power production during concentrated hours.Until we have 𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹-𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱𝘀 𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗱𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗱𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 (i.e., high renewable energy production), there will be limited investment in demand-shifting solutions like thermal storage. This could be perfectly combined with heat pumps (but also other technologies) as giant batteries to store thermal energy when electricity prices are low. Incentivizing demand shifts would enable more efficient use of renewable energy, reduce fossil fuel power generation and keep electricity bills downThis is something political institutions, and #energymarket regulators must consider, to effectively decarbonize #powergeneration.

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